All of
humanity's artificial satellites mysteriously vanish one day, with no warning
or apparent cause.
A small group of government and business operators were the first to grasp the problem.But, before they have a chance to understand what has happened, millions of people lounging on their couches notice something is wrong.
Satellite television, which is broadcast from or
routed by satellites, dominates the market for international programmers as
well as some local stations, hence its departure has a global impact. Travelers
by air, sea, or land will be the next to be affected, as global positioning,
navigation, and timing services have all but disappeared. Pilots, captains, and
drivers must use analog instruments and maps to identify their locations.
Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles are all forced
to come to a halt, be grounded, or return to port. Meanwhile, air traffic
controllers are faced with a difficult task: preventing jet crashes. Most of
the world's traffic comes to a halt within hours. The ramifications go beyond
entertainment and tourism. Many devices, from heating and cooling systems to
assembly lines, rely on super-accurate satellite-based timing systems, with few
or no backup choices. When stoplights and other traffic control devices fail to
synchronize, police and good Samaritans step in to direct the remaining
vehicles and avoid as many collisions as possible. The most disastrous
consequences are yet to come. Because the
global economy will be shut down in the next few hours. Satellite-based
timestamps are used in a variety of applications, including credit card
readers, stock exchanges, and transaction tracking systems. Cash withdrawals
and electronic payments are both unavailable. People are forced to rely on
whatever is locally available due to a breakdown in logistics and supply chains
for essential products such as food and medicine. The military is usually
called in to restore order in most countries that proclaim a state of emergency.
That might take a long time. Because most
navigation and communication technologies have failed, military command
structures may be in disarray. Many troops, including those on active duty, are
left to fend for themselves. Nuclear submarine commanders and missile control centers
are wondering if the outage is the consequence of a hostile attack. What kinds
of decisions do they make based on incomplete information. Even in the
best-case scenario, our civilization will be decades behind schedule. Satellites
have quickly superseded more traditional long-range technologies while being a
relatively recent occurrence. The combination of global location and the internet
has enabled global synchronization of near-instant communications. This is the
foundation for many of the technologies we use every day. Going back to the
communication systems of the mid-20th century would not be a simple
matter. In many cases, they’d have to be rebuilt from the ground up.
While the sudden disappearance in this thought experiment is unlikely, two very
real scenarios could lead to the same results. The first is a solar flare so
strong it fries satellite circuitry–as well as many other devices and
power grids around the world. And the second is an orbital chain reaction of collisions.
With about 7,500 metric tons of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters, and
discarded equipment orbiting our planet even little debris can be exceedingly
destructive at relative speeds of up to 56,000 kilometers per hour. A single
collision in space might result in the creation of hundreds of new pieces of debris,
causing a chain reaction. Although space is vast, many of the thousands of
satellites in orbit now use the same orbital roadways for their unique
missions. And, because most spacecraft aren't designed with disposal in mind,
these motorways will only get worse over time. The good news is that we can
safeguard ourselves by studying our solar system, developing backup plans for
our satellite networks, and cooperating to avert a commons-based orbital disaster.
The space kilometers over our heads are similar to our woods, the biodiversity
of the ocean, and clean air:
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